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Economics

New submissions

[ total of 8 entries: 1-8 ]
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New submissions for Fri, 23 Aug 19

[1]  arXiv:1908.08127 [pdf]
Title: Forecasting e-scooter competition with direct and access trips by mode and distance in New York City
Comments: 18 pages, 6 figures
Subjects: General Economics (econ.GN); Applications (stat.AP)

Given the lack of demand forecasting models for e-scooter sharing systems, we address this research gap using data from Portland, OR, and New York City. A log-log regression model is estimated for e-scooter trips based on user age, income, labor force participation, and health insurance coverage, with an adjusted R squared value of 0.663. When applied to the Manhattan market, the model predicts 66K daily e-scooter trips, which would translate to 67 million USD in annual revenue (based on average 12-minute trips and historical fare pricing models). We propose a novel nonlinear, multifactor model to break down the number of daily trips by the alternate modes of transportation that they would likely substitute. The final model parameters reveal a relationship with taxi trips as well as access/egress trips with public transit in Manhattan. Our model estimates that e-scooters would replace at most 1% of taxi trips; the model can explain $800,000 of the annual revenue from this competition. The distance structure of revenue from access/egress trips is found to differ significantly from that of substituted taxi trips.

[2]  arXiv:1908.08203 [pdf, other]
Title: Outgroup Homogeneity Bias Causes Ingroup Favoritism
Comments: 7 pages, 9 figures
Journal-ref: Proceedings of the 41st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (2019)
Subjects: Theoretical Economics (econ.TH); Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

Ingroup favoritism, the tendency to favor ingroup over outgroup, is often explained as a product of intergroup conflict, or correlations between group tags and behavior. Such accounts assume that group membership is meaningful, whereas human data show that ingroup favoritism occurs even when it confers no advantage and groups are transparently arbitrary. Another possibility is that ingroup favoritism arises due to perceptual biases like outgroup homogeneity, the tendency for humans to have greater difficulty distinguishing outgroup members than ingroup ones. We present a prisoner's dilemma model, where individuals use Bayesian inference to learn how likely others are to cooperate, and then act rationally to maximize expected utility. We show that, when such individuals exhibit outgroup homogeneity bias, ingroup favoritism between arbitrary groups arises through direct reciprocity. However, this outcome may be mitigated by: (1) raising the benefits of cooperation, (2) increasing population diversity, and (3) imposing a more restrictive social structure.

[3]  arXiv:1908.08208 [pdf, other]
Title: Equilibrium in Production Chains with Multiple Upstream Partners
Authors: Meng Yu, Junnan Zhang
Comments: Accepted manuscript, 21 pages, 4 figures
Journal-ref: Journal of Mathematical Economics 83 (2019): 1-10
Subjects: Theoretical Economics (econ.TH)

In this paper, we extend and improve the production chain model introduced by Kikuchi et al. (2018). Utilizing the theory of monotone concave operators, we prove the existence, uniqueness, and global stability of equilibrium price, hence improving their results on production networks with multiple upstream partners. We propose an algorithm for computing the equilibrium price function that is more than ten times faster than successive evaluations of the operator. The model is then generalized to a stochastic setting that offers richer implications for the distribution of firms in a production network.

[4]  arXiv:1908.08219 [pdf]
Title: Implementing result-based agri-environmental payments by means of modelling
Subjects: General Economics (econ.GN)

From a theoretical point of view, result-based agri-environmental payments are clearly preferable to action-based payments. However, they suffer from two major practical disadvantages: costs of measuring the results and payment uncertainty for the participating farmers. In this paper, we propose an alternative design to overcome these two disadvantages by means of modelling (instead of measuring) the results. We describe the concept of model-informed result-based agri-environmental payments (MIRBAP), including a hypothetical example of payments for the protection and enhancement of soil functions. We offer a comprehensive discussion of the relative advantages and disadvantages of MIRBAP, showing that it not only unites most of the advantages of result-based and action-based schemes, but also adds two new advantages: the potential to address trade-offs among multiple policy objectives and management for long-term environmental effects. We argue that MIRBAP would be a valuable addition to the agri-environmental policy toolbox and a reflection of recent advancements in agri-environmental modelling.

Cross-lists for Fri, 23 Aug 19

[5]  arXiv:1908.08474 (cross-list from cs.AI) [pdf, other]
Title: The many Shapley values for model explanation
Comments: 9 pages
Subjects: Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Theoretical Economics (econ.TH)

The Shapley value has become a popular method to attribute the prediction of a machine-learning model on an input to its base features. The Shapley value [1] is known to be the unique method that satisfies certain desirable properties, and this motivates its use. Unfortunately, despite this uniqueness result, there are a multiplicity of Shapley values used in explaining a model's prediction. This is because there are many ways to apply the Shapley value that differ in how they reference the model, the training data, and the explanation context. In this paper, we study an approach that applies the Shapley value to conditional expectations (CES) of sets of features (cf. [2]) that subsumes several prior approaches within a common framework. We provide the first algorithm for the general version of CES. We show that CES can result in counterintuitive attributions in theory and in practice (we study a diabetes prediction task); for instance, CES can assign non-zero attributions to features that are not referenced by the model. In contrast, we show that an approach called the Baseline Shapley (BS) does not exhibit counterintuitive attributions; we support this claim with a uniqueness (axiomatic) result. We show that BS is a special case of CES, and CES with an independent feature distribution coincides with a randomized version of BS. Thus, BS fits into the CES framework, but does not suffer from many of CES's deficiencies.

Replacements for Fri, 23 Aug 19

[6]  arXiv:1811.08083 (replaced) [pdf, other]
Title: Complete Subset Averaging with Many Instruments
Comments: 54 pages, 2 figures, 10 tables
Subjects: Econometrics (econ.EM); Methodology (stat.ME)
[7]  arXiv:1908.01142 (replaced) [pdf, other]
Title: Linkages and systemic risk in the European insurance sector: Some new evidence based on dynamic spanning trees
Comments: JEL: G22
Subjects: Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST); General Economics (econ.GN)
[8]  arXiv:1908.01406 (replaced) [pdf, other]
Title: Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives in Random Bernoulli Sequences
Subjects: Econometrics (econ.EM); Applications (stat.AP)
[ total of 8 entries: 1-8 ]
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